How Much Will Box Office Numbers Matter This Oscar Season?
An analysis on how box office could shape a film's narrative this Oscar season.
Tom Cruise returns as Pete “Maverick” Mitchell in “Top Gun: Maverick.” (Paramount Pictures)
As we question which of the movies that are strong Oscar contenders on paper will live up to their early promise (i.e. The Fabelmans, Killers of the Flower Moon, Babylon, Women Talking, etc.), I wanted to take the time to ask another question as awards season eventually kicks into high gear. How heavily is box office going to factor in the Oscar race?
A few seasons ago, it obviously didn’t matter as much because even with the season’s extended eligibility period, more people were watching movies at home due to pandemic reasons. Last year, more theaters started opening up again, but much like the state of cinema pre-pandemic, it is large-scale tentpole fare that still remains supreme. With the exception of Dune, the films nominated in Best Picture last year hardly made a dent financially due to tentpole/superhero competition and/or the option to watch them on streaming.
Box office might not be a chief factor to a film’s awards hopes nor should it always be. However, in a pre-COVID world, poor box office would sometimes hurt a film’s narrative like when Steve Jobs seemed poised to be a heavyweight Oscar contender before it underperformed once it had a wide theatrical expansion, eventually receiving only two acting nominations.
As audiences keep returning to theaters, we’re seeing positive signs of theatrical life for non-superhero fare. For example, The Lost City recently managed to reach the $100 million mark domestically solely on Sandra Bullock’s star power while the Channing Tatum road dramedy Dog became a sleeper hit, grossing $80 million worldwide on a $15 million budget. It remains to be seen whether these signs will carry over into the fall/winter season, bringing us back to the days where box office could help or hurt a picture’s Oscar narrative. Yet, two films in particular that have already been seen could have strong box office as a part of their awards narrative.
The first one is Everything Everywhere All at Once. A specialty title with near-universal praise that was given an old-fashioned platform release, initially screening in theaters in New York and Los Angeles before slowly expanding. Now, at almost $60 million domestically, it is currently A24’s highest-grossing film. Not to mention, it’s managed to surpass the domestic gross of every single Best Picture nominee from last year except Dune.
Michelle Yeoh as Evelyn Wang in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” (A24 Films)
Given how, at least in my area, art house pictures tend to last in theaters for a few weeks even in art house cinemas, the success of Everything Everywhere All at Once proves that art house concepts can still thrive theatrically on positive word-of-mouth in a time where streaming/VOD seem to be a safer haven for such pictures.
Meanwhile, you have Top Gun: Maverick, a legacy sequel coming 36 years after its predecessor that just had the biggest opening of star Tom Cruise’s career with $153 million over the course of Memorial Day weekend. Thanks to its huge opening and 97% Rotten Tomatoes score, that likely now has people pondering how far it can go Oscar-wise. A Best Picture nomination might even be discussed.
Regarding that last bit, there’s frankly no reason it can’t happen. If Mad Max: Fury Road, another legacy sequel with a summer release and a Cannes premiere, can defy the odds and make Best Picture, no reason Top Gun: Maverick can’t. Especially when it might have a potent narrative in its favor. The narrative of being the top pandemic-era non-superhero blockbuster that’s bringing all sorts of demographics into theaters.
Glen Powell as Lt. Jake “Hangman” Seresin in “Top Gun: Maverick.” (Paramount Pictures)
According to Variety, 55% of viewers that came on opening weekend were over the age of 35. A promising turnout since the poor performance of studio adult dramas like The Last Duel and Nightmare Alley has been partially attributed to old-guard viewers being hesitant about returning to movie theaters in addition to tentpole/superhero competition. This isn’t to suggest that superhero films shouldn’t be made or no longer exist. As director James Gray said in a recent interview at Cannes on the state of cinema and studio monopolization, it’s just that they shouldn’t be the only ones allowed to thrive theatrically and the performance of Top Gun: Maverick is proof of such.
It also doesn’t hurt that Top Gun: Maverick is carried by Tom Cruise, a man who’s not only been hailed as the last true movie star, but someone who’s a strong proponent of preserving the theatrical experience. Leading up to the film’s release, Cruise had discussed how he refused to let it be acquired by a streaming service even with its constantly shifting release date.
The only thing about its Best Picture hopes is that Paramount also has Babylon coming in December. If that’s another film that brings all kinds of demographics into theaters and becomes a huge hit, they might end up putting more energy into it. Also, will Tom Cruise, who’s also a producer on the movie, feel that box office is enough of an award? Right before the movie screened at my showing, there was a short intro from Cruise himself thanking audiences for coming into theaters to see it. So, it’s plausible that he feels people coming in droves to see it as it finally sees the light of day is the real prize.
Thankfully, since it’s only the beginning of June, we still have ways to go before we can make more definitive predictions. But because Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once already have the goods for Oscar contention with their chances being entertained, why not consider them? Since the Oscars are about narratives as much as they are about acknowledging cinematic excellence, both films do speak to the state of the film industry in their own way.