97th Oscars: Mid-Year Contender Review and Updated Predictions
A set of updated Oscar prediction and analyzing of potential contenders released in the first half of 2024.
Now that the first half of 2024 has wrapped up, it’s kind to see where the Oscar race really stands.
As you’ll see in my predictions below, there remains a great emphasis on what’s been seen already. In my last Oscar write-up from a little over a month ago, I did talk about how awards prognostication is like weather forecasting where the weathermen may forecast sunshine only for it to be rain. At the same time, whatever sunshine or rainfall we may predict becomes exactly that on the time we expect it. As a result, I did cave and put sights unseen that seem good on paper in my main predictions while trying not to go overboard.
At this point, my guesses are still as good as anyone else’s. But first, let’s look at which films that have been released in theaters already look like potential Oscar contenders.
If there’s any nomination I’m completely positive will happen this early, it’s Inside Out 2 being nominated for Best Animated Feature. Between how fluid the field looks this year and how the film is making all the money in the world, becoming the first 2024 release to hit $1 billion, Inside Out 2 has to be a safe bet for the Animated Feature category even if whether it’ll go the distance and win the prize remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, despite being released in March, Dune: Part Two feels like it could be an Oscar player, having a similar nomination trajectory as its predecessor by being nominated in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and every possible tech category plus Best Director for Denis Villeneuve this time around. If there’s any hope for an acting nomination, I’d go with Austin Butler for his transformative villain role as Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen in Best Supporting Actor.
Some may think genre or sequel bias may be a hindrance for his chances. But I disagree with that notion when the acting branch has improved on embracing the very genres that they have a long history of ignoring and in the very same year, Lady Gaga is being entertained as a Best Actress possibility for a Joker sequel. So, while I don’t have him in my predicted five like before, I still have Butler as a possibility.
Austin Butler as Feyd-Rautha Harkonnen in “Dune: Part Two.” (Photo courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures)
Zendaya is also splendid as Chani, the film’s moral center. However, Challengers will inevitably be her main Oscar play with Dune: Part Two only helping her case. While Challengers didn’t make Dune: Part Two money, it still made almost $100 million worldwide which is terrific for a $55 million erotic tennis drama and a testament to Zendaya’s star power. Between her career timing, banner year, and the quality of her performance as a tennis prodigy-turned-coach, Zendaya is firmly on my Best Actress radar. Also on the table is Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Best Original Score by the duo of Reznor & Ross, and maybe a nomination for Josh O’Connor depending on where he’s placed.
Given how O’Connor has second billing and has more familiarity on the awards circuit thanks to his Emmy win for The Crown, a placement in Lead Actor would make sense. But because Mike Faist is also a co-lead in what is a three-person narrative, do they push both in the same category or place Faist in Supporting to make room for O’Connor in Lead? Tough to say. Then again, the days of two co-leads being nominated together in Lead Actor/Actress feel like ancient times.
Then there’s Richard Linklater’s genre-bending noir pic Hit Man. At the very least, it could appear at the Golden Globes, including a nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy for its leading man, star/co-writer/producer Glen Powell. Given how director/co-writer Richard Linklater is beloved by the writer’s branch, having been nominated for Boyhood and the Before… sequels, Best Adapted Screenplay could be in the cards.
While on the subject of the Golden Globes, Oscar nominee June Squibb could be a wild card nominee for Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy for the crowd pleasing action-comedy Thelma, which is becoming a sleeper hit for distributor Magnolia Pictures. Similarly, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Kinds of Kindness could make a Globes appearance. Arguably, it could have more of an appearance there than the Oscars.
Although the Academy has gotten more on the wavelength of Yorgos Lanthimos and his vision, Kinds of Kindness is proving to be more divisive than his last two outings. Having just seen the film, I can say it’s more on the wavelength of The Killing of a Sacred Deer and The Lobster than Poor Things. While Jesse Plemons winning Best Actor at this year’s Cannes Film Festival for his amazing performance makes him one to consider, the film’s nomination ceiling probably ends with him in Lead Actor and Best Original Screenplay for Lanthimos and co-writer Efthimis Filippou.
Because like Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is the follow-up to a blockbuster that was nominated for Best Picture and dominated the tech categories, that begs the question as to whether it can repeat Fury Road’s success. If the movie had receipts as strong as Mad Max: Fury Road which barely broke even, I’d be inclined to think so. But its best day is likely the techs (i.e., Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound, Cinematography, etc.) and not much else. I’ve noticed a drum being beaten for Chris Hemsworth in Best Supporting Actor and while he does steal the show, if Oscar winner Charlize Theron couldn’t get nominated for Mad Max: Fury Road, I don’t know if I see a path for Hemsworth.
Lastly, as we’re on the subject of blockbusters, there’s the possibility of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes following the path of the last three installments by getting a lone Visual Effects nomination and A Quiet Place: Day One making it in for Best Sound.
Now, the moment of (almost, sorta, not entire) truth. My current predictions in the eight main categories.
Best Picture:
A Real Pain
Anora
Blitz
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Gladiator II
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Next in Line:
Dìdi
Hard Truths
His Three Daughters
Hit Man
Joker: Folie à Deux
Juror #2
Maria
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
Queer
The Room Next Door
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
We Live in Time
Wicked
Best Director:
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Next in Line:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
John Crowley, We Live in Time
Luca Guadagnino, Challengers
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Pablo Larraín, Maria
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Richard Linklater, Hit Man
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Sean Wang, Dìdi
Best Actor:
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Next in Line:
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
André Holland, The Actor
Nicholas Hoult, Juror #2
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Zendaya stars as tennis prodigy-turned-coach Tashi Donaldson in “Challengers.” (Photo courtesy of Amazon MGM Studios)
Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Mikey Madison, Anora
Zendaya, Challengers
Next in Line:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Demi Moore, The Substance
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
June Squibb, Thelma
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Best Supporting Actor:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Next in Line:
Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
Stephen Graham, Blitz
John Lithgow, Conclave
Josh O’Connor, Challengers
Adam Pearson, A Different Man
Drew Starkey, Queer
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Best Supporting Actress:
Joan Chen, Dìdi
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Next in Line:
Gemma Chan, The Actor
Toni Collette, Juror #2
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Lesley Manville, Queer
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Richard Linklater and Glen Powell, Hit Man
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence “Divine Eye” Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing
Next in Line:
Dave Holstein and Meg LeFauve, Inside Out 2
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker: Folie à Deux
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams, The Piano Lesson
Justin Kuritzkes, Queer
Best Original Screenplay:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Sean Baker, Anora
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Next in Line:
Sean Wang, Dìdi
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters
Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Steven Knight, Maria
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Nick Payne, We Live in Time
Now, I’ll toss things off to you. How do you see things panning out this early? Please share your thoughts in the comments!